My Top Ten Rains

“Rain is a very special blessing,” my mother says. Even when I was little, she’d already been saying it to my sister and me for as long as I could remember. Just as my grandmother had said it to her, when my mother was not my mother but only herself, in the dry Texas summers of her own childhood. Eons ago and continents away, as children reckon these things.

10

It’s summer now. It’s been cloudy all day, but they wait until the thunder starts to clear out the pool.

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Midterm Predictions

  • Democrats will win back the majority in the House and Senate.
  • Democrats will not gain enough seats for the supermajority required to override a presidential veto.
  • The House will once again impeach President Trump, and the Senate will once again fail to convict.
  • President Trump will veto nearly every piece of legislation that hits his desk. The few exceptions will either include significant concessions to MAGA, or they will be about issues so brain-dead and uncontroversial that they won’t even make the news.
  • There will be another government shutdown. President Trump will blame both the shutdown and the lack of any other legislation on obstructionism by Democrats. (That last part isn’t much of a prediction, but I’m throwing it in here anyway.)
  • While doing his best to prevent Congress from doing its job, President Trump will continue using executive orders to bypass the legislative process entirely. More court challenges will be brought as a result, and many will eventually make it to the Supreme Court.
  • Court challenges will also be brought against the midterm results, by both parties. Democratic threats of SCOTUS reform will lead to rulings largely favorable to Republicans in these cases, or at least favorable to the status quo, even by some of the more liberal Justices.
  • It’s less certain how the challenges to President Trump’s executive authority will play out. It’s likely most of the rulings will be in his favor, but if there are significant rulings against him, he will probably ignore them. What happens after that will depend on how many cases he loses, and how brazen he’ll have to be to ignore the ones that don’t go his way.
  • Meanwhile, federal crackdowns on brown and trans people will continue to get worse. Protestors and demonstrators will begin to be arrested and tried as terrorists based on their ties to “violent left-wing extremist,” “radically pro-transgender,” “anarchist,” “anti-American,” and “anti-facist” groups. The same tactic will be used on brown people, including citizens, under the pretense of ties to “cartels” and “jihadists.” The arrests will start with a few high-profile cases involving overt aggression or violence, then the scope of the arrests will gradually expand based on that precedent, with the goal of making any serious protests against the administration a de facto crime.
  • ICE will continue to murder people with impunity (now with the additional excuse of “counter-terrorism”).
  • Although many Democrats will continue to support trans rights, many others will become more vocal and open about throwing trans people under the bus. These fair-weather friends will view trans rights as a bargaining chip at best and a political liability at worst.
  • Gas prices will drop sharply after the Strait of Hormuz reopens. A partial reopening may occur earlier, but an Iran-US agreement that fully reopens the strait will probably not happen until shortly before the midterms. After the midterms, prices will go back up, but more slowly than during the closure.
  • Deltarune Chapter 5 will not be released until after the midterms. Its release will be a surprise, announced no more than a month in advance.
  • You will continue to be awesome, and I will continue to be grateful to have you as my readers.

What do you think? Do some of these predictions seem outlandish? Or do you think some of them don’t go far enough? Let me know in the comments!

And as always, joy and health to you all.

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My Spouse Gets Me the Best Gifts

👁️ 👁️

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Why Am I Like This, pt. XVII

[window sticker]:

The word "FAITH" above a horizontal line, with the word "FEAR" below the line.

[me]: Let’s see…the Fs and As cancel out, so that reduces to: “ITH over ER” *satisfied nod*

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What Will We Tell the Future?

If our species survives this awkward, deadly adolescence, what will we tell our descendants when they ask us, ‘What was the old world like?’

So many things we take for granted now will seem horrific and alien to them. Like all parents, we can’t know all the ways their sensibilities and ideals will differ from our own, but some horrors seem easy to guess: death, war, disease, addiction, mutilation, slavery. The ten thousand miseries of Moloch and the demons of chaos.

As someone who has always enjoyed teaching, I find myself guessing what they’ll be the most confused by. What parts of our history will need the most careful explanation?

Again, it’s impossible to be certain, but it strikes me as likely that one of the things they’ll be most confused by is how easily we were manipulated.

A tweak in the algorithm that serves the content on our smartphones can tip the outcome of a national election. Blatant lies by people in power are swallowed unthinkingly. Cheers for our political team are regurgitated on reflex, while the opposing team’s cheers are mocked and derided, all without a scrap of real effort spent on independent thought or original seeing–even when those cheers determine the fate of millions. We are tricked into fighting and killing each other over scraps while a handful of greedy sociopaths hoard more wealth than they could enjoy in a thousand lifetimes.

It’s impossible to be certain…but I suspect that these are the failings our descendants will puzzle over the most. It will seem to them like a storybook tale; like a bad dream. A fantastic dystopia that traded drama for realism.

Our world has too many emergencies for us to fight with each other. We need to remember, all of us, that our differences are being used to divide us, but differences alone can’t stop us from working together.

We all live together, or we all die–and then our descendants will never have a chance to ask, ‘What was the old world like?’

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5%

If a civil engineer started building a bridge meant to carry a couple hundred cars a day, then said there was a 5% chance the bridge might collapse, they would be fired on the spot and the bridge torn down the next day.

If your bank offered you a new, high-interest savings account, but warned you there was a 5% chance all the money in it might vanish without warning and without hope of recovery, you would refuse the offer (and probably switch banks).

If a car manufacturer started making a new type of engine, and claimed it was so powerful their cars had a 5% chance of exploding above highway speeds, there would be an immediate recall–even though driving that fast is against the law.

If Microsoft pushed out an update to Windows that they claimed would make everyone’s computer run twice as fast, but with a 5% chance it would fry the CPU and erase everything on the hard drive, there would be a lawsuit at minimum–even if no one’s computers actually got fried.

If a biotech lab got a government contract to engineer a viral weapon, and they claimed that the virus they were developing was so potent there was a 5% chance it would escape containment and wipe out the surrounding city, there would be a criminal investigation–even if it turned out they’d made the whole thing up!

So someone please explain to me: when executives and researchers at leading AI companies say there’s a 5-15% chance their products might wipe out the human race, why does anyone think that shrugging and saying “They’re probably just saying that for the hype” is a sane, level-headed response??

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AI Companies Using AI to Suppress AI Regulation

I’m shocked. Again.

In February, PauseAI received an email from Michael Chen, a journalist at The Wire by Acutus. He was looking for a response to an article he was writing about what he called “escalating anti-AI radicalism.”

Only Michael Chen does not exist.

According to an in-depth investigation by Model Republic, Michael Chen is an AI agent – an AI system capable of researching, emailing, interviewing, writing and publishing content.

Model Republic’s reporting indicates that almost the entire Acutus website is generated by AI and that the trail of ownership appears to lead back to OpenAI.

These are the sorts of things our descendants will read about in history books and think, “How in the world could they have missed these signs? Why weren’t there riots? Were our ancestors just that dense? Or were they truly more afraid of embarassment than death–or the death of their children?”

Of course, that’s assuming we have any descendants.

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Office Problems, pt. IV

Judging by when I’m most productive while working from home (and rested), my ideal working hours seem to be roughly 1-9 P.M.

…Do any of y’all know of remote work opportunities in Hawaii or New Zealand?

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Alternatives to “Easily Amused”

  • Highly reactive delight catalyst
  • FUN-damental
  • Ruthlessly efficient at being pleased
  • 60 watts of light from a 9 watt bulb
  • Hightened sensitivity to minor happinesses
  • Fully-stocked appreciation inventory
  • Cheer winner

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Small Pleasures

Solving niggling little problems that are making other people’s lives inconvenient or ugly is one of my greatest joys in life.

Maybe I should have been a plumber?

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Pivot?

I’m considering changing careers and becoming a therapist. With all the jobs being taken over by AI, I forsee high demand!

Plus, I figure by the time AI can take over my job, we’ll either be living in a post-scarcity society or we’ll all be dead.

It’s foolproof!

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