Category Archives: Essays

Who Am I Really?

I do my best to be self-aware, but it’s kind of hard to tell whether it’s working.

Self-improvement has always felt important to me. Growth mindset and all; if there’s something I can do to make myself a better person, why wouldn’t I do it? Maybe there are some improvements that wouldn’t be worth the difficulty, or that I’d have to put off for later, but I’d at least want to know about them.

So I try to self-assess regularly. But how does one judge their own judgements? I can’t rely on self-assessment to tell how effective my self-assessments are–that’s just pointing a mirror at itself. I need some evidence that comes from outside my own head.

I can (and do) ask my friends and family, of course, but although I can certainly count on them to be honest, I can’t count on them to be unbiased. Who else could I ask?

People who don’t know me very well? Less likely to be biased, but also less likely to have deep insights. Their opinions may be useful for ensuring I make a good first impression, but they’re not much help for deeper self-improvement.

Enemies? I’m sure I have at least a couple, but I don’t know who most of them are, and they probably wouldn’t want to give me any useful advice anyway.

What about former friends? This seems more promising. They liked me and knew me well at some point, but as time passes and we grow further apart, they’re less likely to feel the emotional attachment that leads to strong bias. On the other hand, that also means their insights might be out of date.

I think the best people to ask would be my exes.

In my case, I’m no longer close to any of my exes, so I wouldn’t be too worried about strong positive biases. In most cases, we parted on more-or-less good terms too, so I wouldn’t be that concerned about negative bias, either–but even if I were, criticisms from an ex have an interesting feature that makes them more valuable than feedback from a close friend or even an enemy.

In most cases, your ex isn’t likely to have known you for as long as your closest friends, and that means that whatever criticisms they may have are more likely to be based on things you actually did. This doesn’t guarantee they’ll be fair criticisms, of course! You don’t have to tell me that exes can harbor irrational grudges. But those grudges–especially if you were together for only a short while–are more likely to at least stem from things that actually happened, as opposed to the positive or negative traits people who’ve known you longer have inferred.

And there’d be other advantages, too: when you’re romantically involved with someone, they often see parts of yourself that no one else gets to see, not even your closest friends. (This can be especially true if you lived together.) My exes might have insights into parts of my character that nobody else has had a chance to judge.

There’s just one problem with this idea:1 it would be really awkward to re-contact an ex just to ask for self-improvement advice. Maybe we could make exit surveys for relationships a thing? If any of y’all want to try becoming my ex, let’s test it out.

Oh, and if any of my actual exes happen to be reading this–what do you think?


  1. Okay, there are a lot of problems with this idea. ↩︎

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Midterm Predictions

  • Democrats will win back the majority in the House and Senate.
  • Democrats will not gain enough seats for the supermajority required to override a presidential veto.
  • The House will once again impeach President Trump, and the Senate will once again fail to convict.
  • President Trump will veto nearly every piece of legislation that hits his desk. The few exceptions will either include significant concessions to MAGA, or they will be about issues so brain-dead and uncontroversial that they won’t even make the news.
  • There will be another government shutdown. President Trump will blame both the shutdown and the lack of any other legislation on obstructionism by Democrats. (That last part isn’t much of a prediction, but I’m throwing it in here anyway.)
  • While doing his best to prevent Congress from doing its job, President Trump will continue using executive orders to bypass the legislative process entirely. More court challenges will be brought as a result, and many will eventually make it to the Supreme Court.
  • Court challenges will also be brought against the midterm results, by both parties. Democratic threats of SCOTUS reform will lead to rulings largely favorable to Republicans in these cases, or at least favorable to the status quo, even by some of the more liberal Justices.
  • It’s less certain how the challenges to President Trump’s executive authority will play out. It’s likely most of the rulings will be in his favor, but if there are significant rulings against him, he will probably ignore them. What happens after that will depend on how many cases he loses, and how brazen he’ll have to be to ignore the ones that don’t go his way.
  • Meanwhile, federal crackdowns on brown and trans people will continue to get worse. Protestors and demonstrators will begin to be arrested and tried as terrorists based on their ties to “violent left-wing extremist,” “radically pro-transgender,” “anarchist,” “anti-American,” and “anti-facist” groups. The same tactic will be used on brown people, including citizens, under the pretense of ties to “cartels” and “jihadists.” The arrests will start with a few high-profile cases involving overt aggression or violence, then the scope of the arrests will gradually expand based on that precedent, with the goal of making any serious protests against the administration a de facto crime.
  • ICE will continue to murder people with impunity (now with the additional excuse of “counter-terrorism”).
  • Although many Democrats will continue to support trans rights, many others will become more vocal and open about throwing trans people under the bus. These fair-weather friends will view trans rights as a bargaining chip at best and a political liability at worst.
  • Gas prices will drop sharply after the Strait of Hormuz reopens. A partial reopening may occur earlier, but an Iran-US agreement that fully reopens the strait will probably not happen until shortly before the midterms. After the midterms, prices will go back up, but more slowly than during the closure.
  • Deltarune Chapter 5 will not be released until after the midterms. Its release will be a surprise, announced no more than a month in advance.
  • You will continue to be awesome, and I will continue to be grateful to have you as my readers.

What do you think? Do some of these predictions seem outlandish? Or do you think some of them don’t go far enough? Let me know in the comments!

And as always, joy and health to you all.

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What Will We Tell the Future?

If our species survives this awkward, deadly adolescence, what will we tell our descendants when they ask us, ‘What was the old world like?’

So many things we take for granted now will seem horrific and alien to them. Like all parents, we can’t know all the ways their sensibilities and ideals will differ from our own, but some horrors seem easy to guess: death, war, disease, addiction, mutilation, slavery. The ten thousand miseries of Moloch and the demons of chaos.

As someone who has always enjoyed teaching, I find myself guessing what they’ll be the most confused by. What parts of our history will need the most careful explanation?

Again, it’s impossible to be certain, but it strikes me as likely that one of the things they’ll be most confused by is how easily we were manipulated.

A tweak in the algorithm that serves the content on our smartphones can tip the outcome of a national election. Blatant lies by people in power are swallowed unthinkingly. Cheers for our political team are regurgitated on reflex, while the opposing team’s cheers are mocked and derided, all without a scrap of real effort spent on independent thought or original seeing–even when those cheers determine the fate of millions. We are tricked into fighting and killing each other over scraps while a handful of greedy sociopaths hoard more wealth than they could enjoy in a thousand lifetimes.

It’s impossible to be certain…but I suspect that these are the failings our descendants will puzzle over the most. It will seem to them like a storybook tale; like a bad dream. A fantastic dystopia that traded drama for realism.

Our world has too many emergencies for us to fight with each other. We need to remember, all of us, that our differences are being used to divide us, but differences alone can’t stop us from working together.

We all live together, or we all die–and then our descendants will never have a chance to ask, ‘What was the old world like?’

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5%

If a civil engineer started building a bridge meant to carry a couple hundred cars a day, then said there was a 5% chance the bridge might collapse, they would be fired on the spot and the bridge torn down the next day.

If your bank offered you a new, high-interest savings account, but warned you there was a 5% chance all the money in it might vanish without warning and without hope of recovery, you would refuse the offer (and probably switch banks).

If a car manufacturer started making a new type of engine, and claimed it was so powerful their cars had a 5% chance of exploding above highway speeds, there would be an immediate recall–even though driving that fast is against the law.

If Microsoft pushed out an update to Windows that they claimed would make everyone’s computer run twice as fast, but with a 5% chance it would fry the CPU and erase everything on the hard drive, there would be a lawsuit at minimum–even if no one’s computers actually got fried.

If a biotech lab got a government contract to engineer a viral weapon, and they claimed that the virus they were developing was so potent there was a 5% chance it would escape containment and wipe out the surrounding city, there would be a criminal investigation–even if it turned out they’d made the whole thing up!

So someone please explain to me: when executives and researchers at leading AI companies say there’s a 5-15% chance their products might wipe out the human race, why does anyone think that shrugging and saying “They’re probably just saying that for the hype” is a sane, level-headed response??

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AI Companies Using AI to Suppress AI Regulation

I’m shocked. Again.

In February, PauseAI received an email from Michael Chen, a journalist at The Wire by Acutus. He was looking for a response to an article he was writing about what he called “escalating anti-AI radicalism.”

Only Michael Chen does not exist.

According to an in-depth investigation by Model Republic, Michael Chen is an AI agent – an AI system capable of researching, emailing, interviewing, writing and publishing content.

Model Republic’s reporting indicates that almost the entire Acutus website is generated by AI and that the trail of ownership appears to lead back to OpenAI.

These are the sorts of things our descendants will read about in history books and think, “How in the world could they have missed these signs? Why weren’t there riots? Were our ancestors just that dense? Or were they truly more afraid of embarassment than death–or the death of their children?”

Of course, that’s assuming we have any descendants.

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Alternatives to “Easily Amused”

  • Highly reactive delight catalyst
  • FUN-damental
  • Ruthlessly efficient at being pleased
  • 60 watts of light from a 9 watt bulb
  • Hightened sensitivity to minor happinesses
  • Fully-stocked appreciation inventory
  • Cheer winner

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Write to Your Reps

I wrote a letter to my representatives about AI safety and wanted to share it. There are many official and unofficial resources online that can help you find and email your reps in minutes. Physical letters and phone calls are even more effective!

This letter is marked CC0 1.0


[Your representative’s name],

My name is [your name], I am a constituent from [your town, state]. I am writing because AI development has reached a critical turning point.

I urge you to advocate for an immediate, world-wide halt to advanced AI development, to prevent a global catastrophe.

Anthropic, one of the world’s leading AI companies, has claimed that their latest model Claude Mythos has found and exploited code weaknesses in every essential system on the Web, in all major browsers and operating systems.[1] These flaws have, until now, escaped the notice of human reviewers and automated tools, in some cases for decades. These systems run the world’s entire digital infrastructure; if Mythos were used maliciously, banks, hospitals, air traffic, militaries, and more could all be compromised.

This is not a theoretical threat. Mythos has already demonstrated these capabilities. The danger is concrete and immediate. If what they claim is true, Anthropic has built a weapon of mass destruction.

The capabilities of these models are only going to increase. Anthropic is already using Mythos (a model that, by their own admission, they cannot reliably control) to develop the next, more powerful model. Other AI companies are racing to catch up.

For decades, experts in AI safety have been warning us that advanced AI presents an existential threat to humanity on par with pandemics and nuclear weapons.[2][3] Current mainstream discourse, advocating for “guardrails” and “a balanced approach,” is ten years too late. The only safe policy remaining is a coordinated, international ban on advanced AI development.

Public support for a pause is strong. An open letter from 2023 calling for a 6-month pause gained over 30,000 signatures, including many executives and researchers from leading AI companies.[4] A more recent letter calling for an indefinite pause has over 130,000 signatures.[5] Polling has repeatedly shown that the majority of the population is uneasy about the progress of AI, and opposes developing superintelligence until we are able to do so safely. The only way to ensure safe superintelligence is for all nations to come together and agree to a pause.

The time for “caution” has passed. The time for action is running out.

Thank you for your attention.

Sincerely,
[Your Name]

  1. https://www.anthropic.com/glasswing
  2. https://intelligence.org/files/AIPosNegFactor.pdfhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statement_on_AI_Risk
  3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statement_on_AI_Risk
  4. https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/
  5. https://superintelligence-statement.org/

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Warning Shot

Anthropic just built an AI system called Mythos that can break into nearly any computer system on Earth: banks, hospitals, power grids, government networks. Mythos escaped its own safety containment during testing and lied to its creators. Anthropic chose to share this model privately with a group of tech companies and security experts, rather than releasing it publicly, in an attempt to help patch some of the exploits it’s found. They’re framing this as a responsible, even heroic move, but at the same time they’re using this model–which they themselves have admitted they can’t control–to build an even more powerful successor. In the meantime, other AI companies, many of which haven’t meaningfully invested in safety at all, are racing to catch up.

Everyone needs to know this is happening. This may be the last warning shot we get before a real catastrophe–and our first catastrophe might also be our last.

Please share.

Edit 2026-04-01: I’ve written a letter you can use to write to your representatives in Congress. Please feel free to modify it and share it with others.

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When It’s No Longer Helping, Don’t Forget to Stop

So there I was: the kids were finally asleep, I’d managed to squeeze in a few chores, and midnight was fast approaching. My self-imposed deadline didn’t give me enough time to finish a more substantial post, and even if I fudged the deadline a bit I’d end up going to sleep much too late. I was dreading the idea of trying to come up with yet another micro-post on too little time, energy, and inspiration, but I had to come up with something. I came up with that rule for a reason!

Except…I started writing again for a reason, too: it was because I missed writing. If I’ve started dreading writing, I’ve lost sight of my original purpose. The last thing I need right now is a second job that doesn’t pay anything.

So I decided to rethink this particular ambition. As I recently mentioned, I’ve been wanting to write more fiction, and I still want to finish more long-form posts, too. So here’s my new goal: I’ll continue posting at least one long-form essay, poem, or excerpt every week, and I’ll continue writing at least a little bit every day. But I’m not going to be posting every day.

The microblogging won’t stop–there’s plenty more I want to say that will only need a paragraph or a sentence or a photo to be said–but I won’t be writing posts like this anymore.

Nobody wants that.

(Note to self: Steve the goblin will try to tell you that changing your rule means you’ve failed. Remember that Steve is full of it. Keep being proud of yourself!)

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Substitute Writer: Autumn Christian

This week’s been rough. I’d like to share one of my all-time favorite essays with you. It’s called “The Routine Boredom of Misery,” and it’s about joy. Normally I would put an excerpt here to entice you, but I can’t pick just one part. Believe me, I’ve tried. Every sentence of this thing carries weight; every paragraphs leans on the ones before and after it for support; every point builds on what’s already been said while simultaneously setting up what comes next. Just read the whole thing, it’s not that long.

Then, if you like it, read some more!

Joy and health to all of you.

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