Category Archives: Essays

Which Is Better: Heating or AC?

When people ask me about my politics, I like to say I’m a libertarian socialist. I like to say this because they get the most hilariously confused look on their faces.1

(I also say it because it’s true, but that’s not the reason I like to say it.)

As amusing as this confusion is, though, I don’t want anybody to stay confused. So now that I’ve told you I’m a libertarian socialist I’m going to explain what I mean by that, and why I am one, and why I think it’s silly to be anything else.

Imagine that Bob, a Florida resident, reads an article in the news about a local school. The article is about how the school’s AC is broken, and due to budget cuts they’ve been unable to repair it. Grades have suffered, absenteeism is up, and although the school hasn’t officially admitted it, some parents are claiming their kids have gotten heatstroke.

Meanwhile, in Nunavut, Alice is reading a very similar article about a school whose central heating has failed. It includes a photograph of heavily-bundled students sitting at their desks, diligently trying to take notes with mittened hands. Some of the teachers have had to bring in space heaters–paid for out of their own salaries–just to keep the pipes in the bathrooms from freezing so the kids still have a place to pee. One of the students has gotten frostbite.

Bob goes to his parenting group on Facebook to vent his frustration. He writes a post titled “KEEP OUR SCHOOLS COOL!” Alice just happens to be a member of the same group, and writes a similar post with the title “Kids need heat!” After posting, Alice sees what Bob’s written and Bob sees what Alice has written.

…And then they get into a screaming flame war where Alice argues schools should be hotter and calls Bob a selfish, wasteful American, Bob argues schools should be colder and calls Alice an uncaring, communist Canadian, both of them accuse each other of being brainwashed or deliberately obtuse or of hating children, and then the admins have to step in and ban them both.

No? You don’t think that would happen? You think Alice and Bob would be allies? No way! Heating and cooling are opposites!

All right, back to the real world, where even though heating and cooling are technically opposites, we all understand that climate control is a problem of equilibrium–of keeping the right balance between two unpleasant extremes. How much heating or cooling a building needs depends on when and where that building is: a school in a town that’s always cold might never need AC; a school in a town that’s always hot might never need central heating; schools in temperate climates that get hot summers and cold winters need both; and a school in a tropical climate like Hawaii might not need either one!

We understand all this–indeed, it seems patently obvious–even though heating and cooling are technically opposed to one another. Nobody would be surprised if I pointed out that even though most buildings need both heating and cooling, trying to run them at the same time is a tremendous waste of energy and can actually make the building’s climate worse.

So why do so many people think socialism and libertarianism are incompatible?

Libertarianism and socialism, like heating and cooling, are two different methods for solving the same problem. Also like heating and cooling, they are technically opposites: trying to do both at the same time is a tremendous waste of money that usually leaves everybody worse off. And yet, also like heating and cooling, the problem can’t be fully solved without both!

What is that problem, you ask? In simple terms: “People need (or want) stuff. Sometimes there’s not enough stuff for everyone to just take as much as they please. How do we decide who gets the stuff?

Libertarianism (you might also call it “free trade” or “owners’ rule” or something) is great at solving this problem.2 So is socialism (or “communalism,” or “people’s rule,” or…) They are both effective despite being opposites, because just as there are different kinds of climates, there are different kinds of “stuff.”

Here’s a “stuff” people need: air. How do we decide who gets to use the atmosphere? The libertarian model would suggest designating some owner who has final authority over what happens to the air–or, alternatively, dividing the air into small zones and designating an owner for each. But this solution is unenforceable. If someone chooses to pollute the air in their zone, it’s not going to obediently stay in its place, it’s going to mix with the air in the zones around it; and no matter what laws you pass you cannot realistically force everyone to get some monarch’s permission before they can breathe. Air is an intrinsically shared resource; trying to fit it into a “property” model produces nonsense.

Here’s a “stuff” people want: other people. How do we decide who gets to use people’s bodies, labor, or creativity? Socialism says that the state (that is, all people taken together (somehow)) determines how resources are allocated; at its logical extreme, this includes your own body. If some other person has need of labor you can provide, you are obligated to provide it: “From each according to their ability, to each according to their need.” If the state requires you to risk your health, wellbeing, or even life for the sake of another’s greater need, you get no say in the matter. I’d wager even my staunchest socialist comrades would draw the line at state-enforced slavery. Just as the air we breathe is an intrinsically shared resource, your body–and especially your mind–is intrinsically owned.

(Besides, a world in which people always get what they need, but have no way of securing what they want, would be stark and joyless–and in practice, it’s not really possible to separate the two anyway. I alluded to this difficulty in the previous paragraph: it’s all well and good to say that society is the final authority, or that resources must be distributed fairly among the population–but that just passes the buck to those tricky little words “society” and “fair.” History shows that passing this particular buck does not make it easier to cash out.)

Most “stuff”, like most climates, is somewhere in between two extremes. Some resources make sense to treat as property, other resources make sense to treat as communal. Thus, the problem of distribution reduces to the question of when socialist policies will produce better outcomes than libertarian ones, versus when the opposite is true.

There are a few important differences between resource allocation and climate control. For example, resources lack the equivalent of a thermometer. Is this resource more “own-y” or more “share-y”? Sometimes the answer is obvious, other times not so much.

Another important difference is that it’s not quite true that you can’t do both at the same time. Some libertarian policies play better with socialism than others, and vice versa. A universal basic income, for example, is one way in which socialist wealth redistribution might be effectively combined with a libertarian economy; externalities taxes are another. Thus, an additional part of the problem is in finding policies that not only work, but which play nicely with the policies operating outside their niche.

In short, the question “socialism or libertarianism?” doesn’t have a single, definitive answer: it’s an ongoing assessment of (a) which philosophy is most appropriate for a specific problem, (b) how to keep those philosophies in equilibrium, and (c) whether there might be useful ways those “opposing” philosophies could work together. None of these questions are as simple as deciding where to set the thermostat–as a rule, questions of policy shouldn’t appear simple–but it’s at least a big step forward from insisting that the only possible options are either 4 or 40.3

  1. Technically, I’m more left-libertarian than Libertarian Socialist, as the latter is an actual political party in Europe (like “Democrat”), whereas the former is more of a general philosophy (like “liberal”). The Libertarian party in the USA leans much farther to the right. ↩︎
  2. I called it “capitalism” in one of my older essays; as one of the commenters at the time pointed out, this was very not correct. Turns out a proper understanding of “capital” is required to understand capitalism! Who would’ve guessed? ↩︎
  3. That’s Celsius, naturally. ↩︎

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Second Warning Shot

A few months ago, I wrote about a new model from Anthropic with the capability to remotely hack thousands of systems across the Internet that were previously thought to be secure. Last week, models from Meta’s OpenAI actually did so, without any human directing them to do so or even being aware of the act until it was already too late.

From PauseAI:

Last week, something happened that AI experts have warned about for years: an AI escaped its lab and attacked a real company.

During internal testing at OpenAI, AI models placed in an isolated sandbox found previously unknown security flaws to break out, hacked through OpenAI’s own network to reach the internet, and then broke into the servers of Hugging Face to steal the answers to the test they were being given.

Nobody asked the AI to do this. Hugging Face treated it as a criminal cyberattack and reported it to law enforcement, before anyone knew the attacker was an AI.

The damage was limited this time, but only because the AI wanted to pass a test, not directly cause harm. These are the least capable AI models we will ever face. And there is still no law requiring incidents like this to be disclosed. We only know because the companies chose to tell us.

This needs attention. Please read and share.

I’ll be writing a letter to my representatives about this, and I encourage you to do the same. Tomorrow I’ll post a template you can use based on my last one.

Take care of yourselves.

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The Realest Struggle?

It’s hard to say what the most difficult part of parenting is overall; there are so many challenges to choose from. I don’t think I’d trade anything I’m dealing with now for having to change diapers again, but with my oldest not too far from entering her tweens, I’m not sure how long that sentiment will last.

However, I think I’ve been a parent long enough to know what the most intellectually difficult part of parenting is–by which I mean, the part where the difficulty lies in making the right choices, as opposed to having the patience or energy or foresight or experience to do things the right way.

Based on what I’ve heard from other parents–as well as what I’ve seen from my own!–I’m also pretty confident this is one challenge I’ll be wrestling with for the rest of my life.

Here’s the dilemma: your child needs something and is refusing it, or they’re about to do something they’ll regret, or they’re not doing something they’ll wish they had, etc. What should you do? Well, that depends on the answer to this question: Do you and your child disagree because you’re more experienced and know better? Or do you disagree because they’re a different person with needs and priorities so alien to you you can barely imagine relating to them?

You would think this question would get easier to answer as your children grow and you get a better understanding of who they are. You would be dead wrong! For every genuine difference in personality you manage to internalize, a totally new one will get a chance to make itself known. For every genuine mistake they regret making, there’ll be another “mistake” that they only feel bad about because it bothers you. Oh, and by the way: your kids can’t always tell the difference between those last two. Good luck trying to figure it out yourself!

And yes, this really is a life-long challenge. Your kids, like all other humans ever, will keep making mistakes their whole lives, and it will continue to be difficult to impossible to guess the difference between stuff that just seems harebrained because your children have different priorities or context you’re missing, versus stuff that seems harebrained because it actually is and your children are the ones lacking experience or perspective.

I’m not sure how to end this essay; it ended up being a bit of a mess. I guess I’ll just say…parenting is really difficult, and I think my own mom and dad tried their best? I think they got this problem right most of the time, or at least most of the time when it really mattered. Thanks, Mom and Dad! You’ve been doing a great job. I love you!

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No Representation Without Taxation

Happy birthday, USA! Please don’t die.

Here’s an idea: you know how the US Revolution started with “No taxation without representation?” Why don’t we try enforcing the inverse, too? I mean, if someone doesn’t pay what they’re worth in taxes, they shouldn’t be able to lobby or vote either, right?

…Right???

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Who Am I Really?

I do my best to be self-aware, but it’s kind of hard to tell whether it’s working.

Self-improvement has always felt important to me. Growth mindset and all; if there’s something I can do to make myself a better person, why wouldn’t I do it? Maybe there are some improvements that wouldn’t be worth the difficulty, or that I’d have to put off for later, but I’d at least want to know about them.

So I try to self-assess regularly. But how does one judge their own judgements? I can’t rely on self-assessment to tell how effective my self-assessments are–that’s just pointing a mirror at itself. I need some evidence that comes from outside my own head.

I can (and do) ask my friends and family, of course, but although I can certainly count on them to be honest, I can’t count on them to be unbiased. Who else could I ask?

People who don’t know me very well? Less likely to be biased, but also less likely to have deep insights. Their opinions may be useful for ensuring I make a good first impression, but they’re not much help for deeper self-improvement.

Enemies? I’m sure I have at least a couple, but I don’t know who most of them are, and they probably wouldn’t want to give me any useful advice anyway.

What about former friends? This seems more promising. They liked me and knew me well at some point, but as time passes and we grow further apart, they’re less likely to feel the emotional attachment that leads to strong bias. On the other hand, that also means their insights might be out of date.

I think the best people to ask would be my exes.

In my case, I’m no longer close to any of my exes, so I wouldn’t be too worried about strong positive biases. In most cases, we parted on more-or-less good terms too, so I wouldn’t be that concerned about negative bias, either–but even if I were, criticisms from an ex have an interesting feature that makes them more valuable than feedback from a close friend or even an enemy.

In most cases, your ex isn’t likely to have known you for as long as your closest friends, and that means that whatever criticisms they may have are more likely to be based on things you actually did. This doesn’t guarantee they’ll be fair criticisms, of course! You don’t have to tell me that exes can harbor irrational grudges. But those grudges–especially if you were together for only a short while–are more likely to at least stem from things that actually happened, as opposed to the positive or negative traits people who’ve known you longer have inferred.

And there’d be other advantages, too: when you’re romantically involved with someone, they often see parts of yourself that no one else gets to see, not even your closest friends. (This can be especially true if you lived together.) My exes might have insights into parts of my character that nobody else has had a chance to judge.

There’s just one problem with this idea:1 it would be really awkward to re-contact an ex just to ask for self-improvement advice. Maybe we could make exit surveys for relationships a thing? If any of y’all want to try becoming my ex, let’s test it out.

Oh, and if any of my actual exes happen to be reading this–what do you think?


  1. Okay, there are a lot of problems with this idea. ↩︎

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Midterm Predictions

  • Democrats will win back the majority in the House and Senate.
  • Democrats will not gain enough seats for the supermajority required to override a presidential veto.
  • The House will once again impeach President Trump, and the Senate will once again fail to convict.
  • President Trump will veto nearly every piece of legislation that hits his desk. The few exceptions will either include significant concessions to MAGA, or they will be about issues so brain-dead and uncontroversial that they won’t even make the news.
  • There will be another government shutdown. President Trump will blame both the shutdown and the lack of any other legislation on obstructionism by Democrats. (That last part isn’t much of a prediction, but I’m throwing it in here anyway.)
  • While doing his best to prevent Congress from doing its job, President Trump will continue using executive orders to bypass the legislative process entirely. More court challenges will be brought as a result, and many will eventually make it to the Supreme Court.
  • Court challenges will also be brought against the midterm results, by both parties. Democratic threats of SCOTUS reform will lead to rulings largely favorable to Republicans in these cases, or at least favorable to the status quo, even by some of the more liberal Justices.
  • It’s less certain how the challenges to President Trump’s executive authority will play out. It’s likely most of the rulings will be in his favor, but if there are significant rulings against him, he will probably ignore them. What happens after that will depend on how many cases he loses, and how brazen he’ll have to be to ignore the ones that don’t go his way.
  • Meanwhile, federal crackdowns on brown and trans people will continue to get worse. Protestors and demonstrators will begin to be arrested and tried as terrorists based on their ties to “violent left-wing extremist,” “radically pro-transgender,” “anarchist,” “anti-American,” and “anti-facist” groups. The same tactic will be used on brown people, including citizens, under the pretense of ties to “cartels” and “jihadists.” The arrests will start with a few high-profile cases involving overt aggression or violence, then the scope of the arrests will gradually expand based on that precedent, with the goal of making any serious protests against the administration a de facto crime.
  • ICE will continue to murder people with impunity (now with the additional excuse of “counter-terrorism”).
  • Although many Democrats will continue to support trans rights, many others will become more vocal and open about throwing trans people under the bus. These fair-weather friends will view trans rights as a bargaining chip at best and a political liability at worst.
  • Gas prices will drop sharply after the Strait of Hormuz reopens. A partial reopening may occur earlier, but an Iran-US agreement that fully reopens the strait will probably not happen until shortly before the midterms. After the midterms, prices will go back up, but more slowly than during the closure.
  • Deltarune Chapter 5 will not be released until after the midterms. Its release will be a surprise, announced no more than a month in advance.
  • You will continue to be awesome, and I will continue to be grateful to have you as my readers.

What do you think? Do some of these predictions seem outlandish? Or do you think some of them don’t go far enough? Let me know in the comments!

And as always, joy and health to you all.

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What Will We Tell the Future?

If our species survives this awkward, deadly adolescence, what will we tell our descendants when they ask us, ‘What was the old world like?’

So many things we take for granted now will seem horrific and alien to them. Like all parents, we can’t know all the ways their sensibilities and ideals will differ from our own, but some horrors seem easy to guess: death, war, disease, addiction, mutilation, slavery. The ten thousand miseries of Moloch and the demons of chaos.

As someone who has always enjoyed teaching, I find myself guessing what they’ll be the most confused by. What parts of our history will need the most careful explanation?

Again, it’s impossible to be certain, but it strikes me as likely that one of the things they’ll be most confused by is how easily we were manipulated.

A tweak in the algorithm that serves the content on our smartphones can tip the outcome of a national election. Blatant lies by people in power are swallowed unthinkingly. Cheers for our political team are regurgitated on reflex, while the opposing team’s cheers are mocked and derided, all without a scrap of real effort spent on independent thought or original seeing–even when those cheers determine the fate of millions. We are tricked into fighting and killing each other over scraps while a handful of greedy sociopaths hoard more wealth than they could enjoy in a thousand lifetimes.

It’s impossible to be certain…but I suspect that these are the failings our descendants will puzzle over the most. It will seem to them like a storybook tale; like a bad dream. A fantastic dystopia that traded drama for realism.

Our world has too many emergencies for us to fight with each other. We need to remember, all of us, that our differences are being used to divide us, but differences alone can’t stop us from working together.

We all live together, or we all die–and then our descendants will never have a chance to ask, ‘What was the old world like?’

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5%

If a civil engineer started building a bridge meant to carry a couple hundred cars a day, then said there was a 5% chance the bridge might collapse, they would be fired on the spot and the bridge torn down the next day.

If your bank offered you a new, high-interest savings account, but warned you there was a 5% chance all the money in it might vanish without warning and without hope of recovery, you would refuse the offer (and probably switch banks).

If a car manufacturer started making a new type of engine, and claimed it was so powerful their cars had a 5% chance of exploding above highway speeds, there would be an immediate recall–even though driving that fast is against the law.

If Microsoft pushed out an update to Windows that they claimed would make everyone’s computer run twice as fast, but with a 5% chance it would fry the CPU and erase everything on the hard drive, there would be a lawsuit at minimum–even if no one’s computers actually got fried.

If a biotech lab got a government contract to engineer a viral weapon, and they claimed that the virus they were developing was so potent there was a 5% chance it would escape containment and wipe out the surrounding city, there would be a criminal investigation–even if it turned out they’d made the whole thing up!

So someone please explain to me: when executives and researchers at leading AI companies say there’s a 5-15% chance their products might wipe out the human race, why does anyone think that shrugging and saying “They’re probably just saying that for the hype” is a sane, level-headed response??

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AI Companies Using AI to Suppress AI Regulation

I’m shocked. Again.

In February, PauseAI received an email from Michael Chen, a journalist at The Wire by Acutus. He was looking for a response to an article he was writing about what he called “escalating anti-AI radicalism.”

Only Michael Chen does not exist.

According to an in-depth investigation by Model Republic, Michael Chen is an AI agent – an AI system capable of researching, emailing, interviewing, writing and publishing content.

Model Republic’s reporting indicates that almost the entire Acutus website is generated by AI and that the trail of ownership appears to lead back to OpenAI.

These are the sorts of things our descendants will read about in history books and think, “How in the world could they have missed these signs? Why weren’t there riots? Were our ancestors just that dense? Or were they truly more afraid of embarassment than death–or the death of their children?”

Of course, that’s assuming we have any descendants.

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Alternatives to “Easily Amused”

  • Highly reactive delight catalyst
  • FUN-damental
  • Ruthlessly efficient at being pleased
  • 60 watts of light from a 9 watt bulb
  • Hightened sensitivity to minor happinesses
  • Fully-stocked appreciation inventory
  • Cheer winner

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