I was in my bedroom a few weeks ago when I suddenly remembered I’d gotten a text earlier in the evening. It was from an old friend I hadn’t heard from in a very long time, but I’d decided not to check it right away, because we hadn’t parted on great terms and I was nervous about what it might say. This struck me as highly unlikely–on both counts–so I concluded that I was probably just remembering a dream.
What makes this unusual is that I came to this conclusion while still dreaming. I must be doing something right!
The benefits of rationality can be difficult to see. Just like with doctors and governments, its benefit is more in preventing negative outcomes than securing positive ones. The cost of prevention is easy to see, and it’s equally easy to see when it fails–but it’s difficult to impossible to notice all the times something bad doesn’t happen. (This is why everybody hates bureaucracy, but getting rid of it always ends in disaster.)
Unfortunately, this also means it can be difficult to tell if you’re doing rationality right–especially if you don’t have any aspiring rationalist friends to make bets with. It’s nice to see some positive results!
In Search of Secrets 